ABSTRACT
The novel Coronavirus outbreak was originated from Wuhan, China, was first reported in India on 30th January 2020. The impact of an epidemic depends on the number of persons infected, infection transmissibility and the spectrum of clinical severity. To determine the impact of outbreak, analysis of the existing record was done. The objective of this study was to determine the demographic factors, case fatality rate, its association and trend was observed among positive cases reported in Gwalior district. Covid-19 related data collected at the IDSP unit of Gwalior District was analysed. A total of 11281 case reported between 30th March to 11th October was included and their recorded data was analysed using mean, median, chi-square test and logistic regression analysis. The study shows that Mean age of the cases was 39.95±16.75 while their median age was 38.0 (27.0-52.0). Maximum cases were in the age group of 21-30 (25.6%). On assessing the current status, 94.7% patients were discharged from isolation/treatment facility, 4% case were active while 1.3% died. Risk Ratio (Odds Ratio) for death was calculated for different characteristics. It was concluded from the present study that the outcome of disease was found statistically significant in age groups, residence in containment area and isolation status among patients by using logistic regression analysis. Also, no gender predilection of the disease and its mortality.
ABSTRACT
Infection born by Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has swept the world within a time of a few months. It has created a devastating effect on humanity with social and economic depressions. Europe and America were the hardest hit continents. India has also lost several lives, making the country fourth most deadly worldwide. However, the infection and death rate per million and the case fatality ratio in India were substantially lower than many of the developed nations. Several factors have been proposed including the genetics. One of the important facts is that a large chunk of Indian population is asymptomatic to the SARS-CoV-2 infection. Thus, the real infection in India is much higher than the reported number of cases. Therefore, the majority of people are already immune in the country. To understand the dynamics of real infection as well as level of immunity against SARS-CoV-2, we have performed antibody testing (serosurveillance) in the urban region of fourteen Indian districts encompassing six states. In our survey, the seroprevalence frequency varied between 0.01-0.48, suggesting high variability of viral transmission among states. We also found out that the cases reported by the Government were several fold lower than the real infection. This discrepancy is majorly driven by a higher number of asymptomatic cases. Overall, we suggest that with the high level of immunity developed against SARS-CoV-2 in the majority of the districts, it is less likely to have a second wave in India.